NFL Conference Championships: The Final Four

It is the best of times. It is the worst of times…especially if you are a football fan. There are only three meaningful pro football games left in the 2008-09 season, the NFC and AFC Conference Championships today and Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, Florida on February 1.

Four teams remain: the AFC #2 seed, the Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4, 1-0); NFC #4 seed, Arizona Cardinals (9-7, 2-0); and two #6 seeds, the wild card Baltimore Ravens (11-5, 2-0) from the AFC North and the NFC East wild card Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1, 2-0).

For those of us who root for the last season Super Bowl Champion New York Giants, that fact is bittersweet. The Gmen played and defeated all of those teams this year and had they gotten past the Eagles last week, would have been favored to repeat. But that’s water under the bridge.

Philadelphia comes off that 23-11 victory with another necessary road trip to the Arizona desert to face a surprising Cardinals team that has advanced further in the playoffs than at any time in the franchise’s 60-year history. Quarterback Donovan McNabb has been this year’s whipping boy for Philly sports fans after a rocky mid-season and a one-game benching. He’s trying to get them back their first Super Bowl since 2005 and this is his fifth trip to the conference championship. He’ll need a running game from banged up Brian Westbrook, whose knee caused him to practice on a limited basis this week. Otherwise he’ll be dependent on an unheralded receiver corps.

Defense has always been the Eagles strong suit and they will need to step up against a Cardinals offense that has suddenly found balance. Running back Edgerrin James has had 130 yards rushing and 1 touchdown in two playoff games, and Quarterback Kurt Warner has receiver Anquan Boldin back to compliment the always dangerous Larry Fitzgerald and provide a double passing threat.

Arizona is at home in front of one of the noisiest crowds in the NFL. My heart is with the Eagles—I’d like to see Donovan silence his detractors, and have an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl—but my head is telling me otherwise.

Since I’ve already tipped my hand about my AFC pick, let me just explain my rationale.

It’s another AFC North battle between two teams that know each other and don’t like each other. The Steelers have taken both meetings this season—23-20 in Week 4, 13-9 in Week 15 on a controversial last minute touchdown call. While it is hard to beat a team three times in one season, it will also be hard to beat the Steelers #1 ranked defense and stop their running back Willie Parker, with injuries to linebacker Terrell Suggs (questionable, with a shoulder injury) and cornerback Samari Rolle (doubtful, thigh). Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco will be playing in his biggest game to date against a team that will show him multiple schemes. His receiver, veteran Derrick Mason, is also questionable with a knee injury.

I went 2-2 in last week’s picks and I’m 4-4 for the entire post season. This weekend’s predictions are in bold:

NFL Conference Championships

Sunday, January 18, 2009

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals
3:00 PM ET FOX

AFC

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
6:30 PM ET CBS