Road to the Super Bowl: Conference Championship Weekend
While I await your picks to help me fill out my SAG awards ballot (read below), it’s time once again to talk football.
Of the 32 teams that opened NFL training camps back in July, we are now down to just four for this weekend’s NFC and AFC Championships. Historically this is the weekend when some of the best games of the year are played, even better than many of the past Super Bowls. Any of these four teams could win today, home field advantages and season records notwithstanding.
Thus making my picks this week, it’s a combination of research, gut instinct and roll of the dice. But here are some things I’m looking at:
The home teams, Seattle and Denver, were both undefeated at home during the regular and post seasons. The visitors, Carolina and Pittsburgh are undefeated on the road in post season.
Seattle and Denver head coaches Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan, respectively, have both won Super Bowls, while Pittsburgh’s Bill Cowher and Carolina’s John Fox are still looking for their first wins in the big game.
In post season play, Carolina leads all teams in total offense, with 384.5 yards per game. Their opponent Seattle is third with 334.0; Pittsburgh fifth with 320.5; Denver eighth at 286.0.
On defense, Carolina has allowed the fewest yards in the post season, at 207.0; Seattle allowed 289.0, Pittsburgh 316.0 and Denver 420.0.
Which defense matches up better against their opponent’s offense? Which team will be able to do what it wants to do on offense? Here’s where the gut instinct kicks in.
Pittsburgh plays a bruising defense and likes to pound the ball on offense. They are big up front on both sides of the ball. Their defense caused fits for Indianapolis and stationary quarterback Peyton Manning, but they’ll be opposing a scrambler in Jake Plummer. They’ll have to shut down Denver’s running game to force them into passing and make Plummer run a lot. Bronco’s receiver Rod Smith is one of the league’s best and a team leader, but the Steeler defensive secondary shut down arguably the league’s premiere receiving corps in the Colts.
Pittsburgh’s offensive line matches up favorably with Denver’s defense which may allow them to control possession and mix up the offense more easily. They’re gonna try to run on Denver and I think the stats above favor Pittsburgh in a ground game.
But Pittsburgh is 1-4 in Championship games. They have to prove they can win the big one.
In the NFC, Seattle running back Shaun Alexander’s health is the big question mark. He suffered a concussion in last week’s win over the Redskins, and whether the league’s MVP is 100% by game time is uncertain. He’ll get hit a lot by Carolina’s physical defense, and if he can’t play the whole game, that forces Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck to throw. Seahawk receivers are good but not great.
Carolina’s primary offensive weapon is their great receiver Steve Smith. Seattle has spent all week plotting how to defend him. If they are successful, Carolina is forced to run, with backup running back Nick Goings in to replace the injured DeShaun Foster. But few teams have successfully shut down Smith all season and too much emphasis on stopping him could give other Carolina receivers opportunity to shine.
Seattle has one of the noisiest stadiums and most rabid fans in the NFL and if Seattle is leading or the game is close, they’ll be a factor that could make it difficult for Carolina to communicate on the field.
I’m looking forward to two great games regardless of whether or not I’m right. but here are my picks.
AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh at Denver
3:00
CBS
NFC Championship Game
Carolina at Seattle
6:30
FOX
Super Bowl XL
Sunday, Feb. 5
Detroit, Michigan
AFC Champion vs. NFC Champion
6:00 p.m.
ABC
hmmmmm...it looks like you were right on one account... let's see how the night ends...
Posted by: P. Alonzo Harris Jr. at January 22, 2006 9:11 PM